In much of human life, we equate the length of time someone has been performing a task with their level of skill. Businesses proudly state how long ago they were founded, a lawyer with “30 years’ experience” can charge more than one fresh out of college and ‘time served’ often denotes seniority.
But is this true of the film industry?
Put more directly, does the number of films a producer has made indicate how likely their next project is to succeed?
To answer this, I teamed up with Bruce Nash from The Numbers. We focused on 2,911 narrative (i.e. non-documentary) feature films released (either theatrically, direct-to-video or VOD) between 1999 and 2018. For each film, we have detailed estimates of their financial performance, …